(Re)Introducing Total Yards per Play.

Four seasons ago, I worked up a new quarterback statistic, based on Pro Football Reference's excellent ANY/A metric, and used that statistical analysis to model how good Jalen Hurts would be for the 2022 season. This model correctly predicted an All Pro type of season from Hurts, which came to pass. Here's a link to the original post, but the following is the formula for the subsequently updated version of the statistic (I will intend to reference this somewhat often over the next few weeks):

• A QB receives a "yard" for every yard gained, passing or running.

• Add 20 "yards" for each touchdown scored, passing or running.

• Subtract 45 "yards" for every turnover-worthy play (pulled from PFF for simplicity).

• Subtract a "yard" for every yard lost due to sacks.

• Add 8.7 "yards" for each first down gained passing or running (why such a weird number? This is why.).

• Finally, divide the total of everything above by total plays, here defined as total pass attempts + total rush attempts + total times sacked - all passes dropped, thrown away or spiked.

This formula attempts to combine as many relevant variables to QB performance into one single, easy to understand and compare measurement (in this case, the total value in yards that a player helps his team gain each time he touches the ball). The average for TYP for all QBs over the last five years is 8.825. For reference, Jalen Hurts' TYP for the last five years is 9.752.