Who will win the Super Bowl? Building a model from past winners (Version 3).

Three years ago, in anticipation of a Philly Super Bowl run, I wrote a piece that attempted to use statistical history to determine the mold that champions typically come from. I ended up finding seven statistical traits that seemed to predict success with some frequency. Last year I came back to that project and updated it a bit with a couple new and different insights (that article came to the conclusion that Philly was a serious threat to win the big game, and well, that played out).

By way of review, I tested where the 14 playoff teams rank leaguewide in 22 different but important statistical measures (points scored, points allowed, yards gained and allowed, passing yards gained and allowed, rushing yards gained and allowed, ANY/A for both offense and defense, passer rating for offense and defense, yards per rush gained and allowed, sack % created and allowed, 3rd down % converted and allowed, red zone TD % scored and allowed, turnover margin, and special teams EPA). Unsurprisingly, most of the stats proved to have predictive value for eventual champions but only a few showed consistent (defined here as 70% rounded or better likelihood of being a trait of a champion) value. Here they are:

A top ten scoring offense (74% of Super Bowl winners). Hardly a surprise; you need to score points to win. The top ten scoring offenses that also made the playoffs this year are the Seahawks, Bills, Jaguars, Patriots, Rams, 49ers and Bears.

A top eight scoring defense (70%). Also unsurprising. Dominant defenses are more frequently represented among the list of champs than offenses. This year the Seahawks, Jaguars, Patriots, Texans, Broncos and Eagles are top eight scoring defenses.

Top ten in BOTH passer rating and ANY/A achieved by the offense (70%). Naturally, this speaks to the importance of an efficient passing offense (and the value of quality over quantity). Plenty of representation of teams that fit both tests here too (Seahawks, Bills, Patriots, Eagles, Rams, 49ers, Packers).

Top ten in BOTH passer rating and ANY/A allowed by the defense (70%). The defensive mirror of the above point, and important for the same reason. The teams that fit this bill are the Seahawks, Bills, Jaguars, Texans, Broncos, Eagles and Chargers.

Side note: once again we see that passing volume matters much less than passing efficiency.

Top eight in turnover ratio (70%). No shock here. Six of the top eight teams in this statistic made the playoffs; they are the Bears, Texans, Jaguars, Steelers, Rams and Eagles.

The team must have won at least 60% of their games after Thanksgiving (70%). Very rarely will you find a team that limped to the finish of the regular season turn it on in the playoffs. Eagles fans will painfully recall the 2023 season, where the Birds went 2-5 after Thanksgiving and were one-and-done in the postseason. The NFL season really begins at Thanksgiving. This year, the playoff teams that won at the required rate are the Seahawks, Bills, Jaguars, Patriots, Texans, Broncos, 49ers, Chargers and Steelers.

Finally, the team must have all-around excellence, here measured as averaging 12th or better in the 22 statistical tests. The teams in the playoffs that fit this bill are the Seahawks, Bills, Patriots, Texans, Broncos and Rams.

Historically speaking, only one of the 23 Super Bowl winners since expansion (the 2007 Giants) have failed to pass at least three of these tests, so any team that failed to hit that threshold can likely be discarded. Here's how the playoff teams did:

passed all seven: none this year

passed six: Seahawks

passed five: Bills, Jaguars, Patriots, Texans

passed four: Broncos, Eagles, Rams

passed three: 49ers

CUTOFF LINE

passed two: Bears, Chargers, Steelers

passed one: Packers

passed none: Panthers

What conclusions can we draw? Here are some of mine:

• This is a relatively weak (or some would say balanced) field of contenders. In 2022 and 2023 combined, we had five teams that passed all seven tests. This year, none.

• This Wild Card weekend we are treated to two matchups between contenders (Eagles-49ers, Bill-Jaguars) and one that may as well be a consolation game (Bears-Packers).

• A caveat that should be discussed here: the Patriots scored very well statistically but it should be noted that they did so against a historically easy schedule. How easy that schedule was depends on your metric of choice, but since I prefer SRS I'll use their component. The 2025 Patriots played the second easiest schedule of any of the 736 teams since expansion (32 teams x 23 seasons). Their average opponent by this measure was 4.5 points per game below average, something equivalent to the 2025 Cardinals (a three win team). Put into perspective, how many teams WOULND'T look awesome playing 17 straight games against the Cardinals? For good measure, the Patriots had nine home games. The Patriots have just one win over a team that finished above .500, a win over Buffalo three months ago. I point this out because the situation is so unusual and because so few in the media are talking about it. This indicates that a letdown is a possibility for New England as they start taking on tougher opposition. Luckily for them, their first matchup is against a team that, according to this analysis, is unlikely to have much playoff success (Chargers).

• A similar comment can be made about the Bears, who faced the NFL's 7th easiest schedule this year but only managed to outscore those teams by 26 points total. While I think most are aware that Chicago did not face a difficult schedule and won a lot of close games, I was surprised to see how poorly they measured statistically. It seems that most of their success is attributed to forcing an unusually high rate of turnovers, something that is generally unsustainable. If a team can go 60 minutes without turning the ball over, they should beat the Bears.

• This statistical item didn't make the tests list above because I focused on more specific stats and not team-wide measures, but interesting nonetheless: every single one of the 23 Super Bowl winners evaluated finished 12th or better in SRS. What's doubly interesting this year is that the nine playoff teams that finished at least 12th in SRS are also the nine teams that hit at least three tests. This means that there's a 96% possibility that the Super Bowl champ will be one of the Seahawks, Bills, Jaguars, Patriots, Texans, Broncos, Eagles, Rams or 49ers.

• A more Birds-focused observation would point to the idea that this coming 49ers game will be more of a challenge than some are currently predicting. SF is playing with house money, will have something to prove after getting shut down by Seattle last week and always has a chip on their shoulder when it comes to Philly. On the other hand, Philly should be healthier than they've been in a long time, partially because of the rest they gave themselves on Sunday but more because they'll finally be getting key contributors like Lane Johnson, Jalen Carter and Nakobe Dean back after those guys have missed a combined 13 games since the bye. I like the Birds in a close, low scoring matchup. Should they advance, it seems likely they'll either host the Rams or travel to the Bears. Both matchups intrigue for different reasons, but I think my preference would be to go to Chicago.

We've made it to playoff football yet again, Birds nation!