A (mostly) comprehensive list of NFL quarterbacks.

This is usually one of my favorite columns to write, mostly because of the (often faulty) narratives surrounding the quarterback position. So many internal biases go into these sorts of rankings (including my own), so I figured that one more opinion piece can't hurt. Unlike some, I'm going to take my lumps for past misses on these rankings; if a player was ranked in the three previous (2022, 2023 or 2024) versions of this column, that ranking will be presented so you can track a) how the player is improving or devolving and b) how wrong I've been. A few notes on how this list will be formatted:

1. These rankings are mostly built around my answer to the question, “Which QB would give a team a better chance of success in 2025?” This is why you'll find the list to be overly harsh on rookies or other players with minimal experience; some of these are players I think will eventually be good, but it's very hard to confidently project them to that level for this year. This is not a ranking based strictly on raw talent, nor on who will be better over the next five or ten years, but who I think will be good in THIS YEAR.

2. I am using a four-tiered system for ranking and rating quarterbacks; Tier 4 guys are players that probably won't (and really shouldn't) ever see the field. They are camp bodies or QB3 types that will more likely than not be out of football in a couple years. Tier 3 guys were players that actively held their teams back, or are too young to be counted on to lift their teams with any consistency. Tier 2 guys were good enough to win with, but not consistently good enough to elevate their teams. Tier 1 players are able to rise above their supporting casts with consistency and will be the reason their teams are successful more often than not. I am also adding a few sub-categories that I think will illustrate the ranking a little better. It should go without saying, but most players have games, stretches of games or even whole seasons where they play in at least one all four tiers; no player is in any of the tiers 100% of the time. The tier I have placed them in is the tier into which they can most consistently and comfortably be projected.

3. Not every QB in the league is listed; there are between 90-120 quarterbacks rostered on team's 53 man roster and practice squads. Most of these guys have never played an NFL down and probably won't ever play. Because of this obscurity it's nearly impossible to include that kind of player on this list. Also, not every player listed has commentary; if you happen to be a fan of a QB that I've said nothing about (good or bad), feel free to drop me a line and tell me what I SHOULD have said. Same goes if you have a disagreement about my assessments.

4. I will be referring to a couple statistical rankings throughout this list: a ranking of all active QBs who have started at least one game (hereafter referred to as the "one start list") and another of all active QBs who have made at least 32 starts (the "32 start list"). These will help provide common points of reference for certain players, and come to us courtesy of the incomparable stathead.com.

5. One stat I love and will reference here often is ANY/A; for a simple explanation of what it represents click here.

6. Projected week 1 starters will have asterisks* behind their names. Players are listed with the teams on whose rosters they appeared on August 31. Some changes may have occurred, or it's possible I missed a few of the roster shuffles that took place this month. Let me know if you find a goof.

TIER FOUR (players that you hope and pray never have to start for your team)

Group A: these guys are on their way out; they'll only start a game in the event of catastrophic injury.

80. Deshaun Watson, Browns (LY: 19, 2023: 10, 2022: 24). Nuts to this guy; what a total waste.

79. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, FA (LY: 62, 2023: NR, 2022: college). 99 active QBs have started at least one game in this league; DTR is 94th among them in career passer rating and ANY/A (ahead of Jake Fromm, Nathan Peterman, Will Grier, Clayton Tune and the immortal Felipe Franks). Legitimate candidate for worst QB in the league. Philly did well to cut bait with him.

78. Tim Boyle, FA (all seasons: NR). Boyle rates exactly one slot ahead of DTR in the one start list. Seems appropriate to slot him here.

77. Brett Rypien, Bengals (all seasons: NR). Brett Rypien has a famous father, a terrible career statline (seriously, who knew this will be his fifth season in the NFL?!?) and Vikings fans were incredulous that he was in the QB2 mix for them. Not a good sign.

76. Skylar Thompson, Steelers (LY: 68, 2023 and 2022: NR). The Steelers passionate pursuit of NOT replacing Big Ben with a competent QB continues; more on this later.

75. Sam Ehlinger, Broncos (all seasons: NR). Who?

74. Case Keenum, Bears (LY: 67, 2023 and 2022: NR). I honestly believed that Keenum had retired last season; he's probably a good choice to back up Caleb Williams.

73. Bailey Zappe, Browns (LY: 61, 2023: 43, 2022: NR). Already the second Browns QB to show up here; he won't be the last.

72. Tommy DeVito, Patriots (LY: 55, 2023 and 2022: NR). The Godfather somehow couldn't hang with maybe the worst QB room in the league. Probably the end for him, but at least we know he can help families take really good pictures.

71. Spencer Rattler*, Saints (LY: NR). Rattler is the lowest ranked guy on this list with a starting job. It's hard to imagine, but it really wasn't that long ago that Rattler was considered a potential future first overall pick.

70. Zach Wilson, Dolphins (LY: 58, 2023: NR, 2022: 32). Wilson's 2020 college season that launched him to elite draft status is yet more proof that we should discard literally everything that happened that year.

69. Tyler Huntley, Ravens (2023: 42, all other years NR). The owner of the most hilarious Pro Bowl honor in history deserves mention here every couple seasons.

68. Trevor Siemian, Titans (LY: 64, 2023 and 2022: NR). Is this guy the best NFL QB that Northwestern has produced since Otto Graham? Sad if true.

67. Tyson Bagent, Bears (LY: 63, 2023: NR, 2022: college).

Group B: these are the career backups that probably deserve an NFL paycheck but likely not a starting job.

66. Will Levis, Titans (LY: 41, 2023: 51, 2022: college). Mayo Man has already been shut down for the season with a timely injury after being replaced by a top draft pick. He'll be looking for a new team soon enough.

65. Shedeur Sanders, Browns (LY: college). Sanders may be a ROY or may be regarded as a comical bust by the end of the season. Seldom are the full range of potential outcomes on the table at once but they are here. My personal prediction would range much closer to "bust" but if he is even OK, the name recognition and legion of Sanders Stans will be enough to substantially inflate his reputation.

64. Jalen Milroe, Seahawks (LY: college). Reminds me of a far more polished Malik Willis; if given time I think he'll be pretty good.

63. Joshua Dobbs, Patriots (LY: 66, 2023: 50, 2022: NR). Is Dobbs the best of the bad backup QBs? Probably, but no shame to him. Most of these guys have had a random four game stretch where they looked like a starter and they coast on that for the rest of their careers. Dobbs had that stretch in 2023 with Minnesota and is on his second team since then (and ninth overall).

TIER THREE (players that generally hold the team back)

Group C: starters turning into backups. Almost everyone in this group has had a real chance to start but likely won't get another without significant help.

62. Taylor Heinicke, FA (LY: 53, 2023: 41, 2022: NR).

61. Sam Howell, Eagles (LY: 35, 2023: 32, 2022: NR). Howell was a guy I thought had a chance to be a star coming out of UNC; I was wrong. He'll provide depth behind Jalen and McKee in Philly this year. He's one of those guys that I'd like to see operating a quality offense before I discard his potential altogether, but hopefully that chance won't happen in Philly.

60. Malik Willis, Packers (LY and 2023: NR, 2022: 35). Willis looked like a total lost cause in Tennessee, headed to Green Bay after his release and looked surprisingly capable last season in relief of Jordan Love. It's remarkable what a competent organization can do for a quarterback.

59. Mitchell Trubisky, Bills (LY: 51, 2023: NR, 2022: 37). I've got nothing against this kid personally, but the haunting story of his selection over both Mahomes and Watson in the 2017 draft (which was an absurd decision even then, by the way) will dog the Bears till the end of time.

58. Davis Mills, Texans (LY: 34, 2023: 34, 2022: 36). Mills is like Howell above in that the only experience we have with him are his starts for really bad teams.

57. Kenny Pickett, Raiders (LY: 48, 2023: 30, 2022: NR). Another former Eagles QB2 has moved on, twice; Pickett had been a face in the crowd in Cleveland's messy QB room but was granted a reprieve by a trade to Vegas.

56. Cooper Rush, Ravens (LY: NR, 2023: 45, 2022: 34). Delusional Cowboys fans had tried to talk themselves into this guy being a potential starter as recently as 2022; those days have come and gone as Rush now sits behind Lamar Jackson. Talk about a clash of styles!

55. Drew Lock, Seahawks (LY: 36, 2023 and 2022: NR). Lock has had such a forgettable career that I legitimately forgot he had been in the NFL as long as he has; last year's column had him as a second year player (whoops). Lock is on his second stint in Seattle and will likely be QB3 there.

54. Desmond Ridder, FA (LY: 43, 2023: 38, 2022: NR).

53. Jarett Stidham, Broncos (LY: 56, 2023 and 2022: NR).

52. Nick Mullens, Jaguars (LY: 59, 2023 and 2022: NR).

51. Mike White, FA (LY: NR, 2023: 46). White has had a sneaky productive career (you have to squint a bit but trust me, it's there) for a guy most people wouldn't recognize.

50. Aiden O'Connell, Raiders (LY: 54, 2023: NR, 2022: college). I may be a little hard on O'Connell by slotting him here; he's likely a middle of the road reserve QB who's just young enough to offer some possible upside. On the other hand, how unpromising do you have to be for your team to go out and trade for both Geno Smith AND Pickett?!?

49. Easton Stick, Falcons (LY: 57, 2023 and 2022: NR). The new Chase Daniel makes a new career stop; he'll likely serve as QB2 for Penix once the Falcons deal with Kirk Cousins.

48. Tyler Shough, Saints (LY: college). I have nothing against Shuck (the actual pronunciation of his name) but the track record of rookie QBs who are at least 25 years old is, in a word, bad. Perhaps that's why the Saints opted to sit him in favor of Rattler to start the season.

47. Anthony Richardson, Colts (LY: 42, 2023: 52, 2022: college). My money is on Richardson wearing another uniform by this time next year, and never starting an NFL game again, barring injury to an actual starter.

46. Jacoby Brissett, Cardinals (LY: 50, 2023: 33, 2022: 26). If I needed an experienced backup who could keep the wheels turning but would pose no threat to my starter, I think Brissett would be one of the top four or five names on my list. We'll hit a few more of these guys shortly.

45. Carson Wentz, Vikings (LY: 26, 2023: 26, 2022: 19). Wentz is sort of like the ex-girlfriend that you're glad to be free of bit you still wish well. Part of you remembers enough of the good times that you think she might have a future somewhere else but when you see the train wreck she's made of her life since she was with you, you're glad that future isn't with you. Maybe that analogy only makes sense to me, but it seems to fit. Side note: Wentz's monster extension before the 2019 season would only have expired this past March. Time flies.

44. Trey Lance, Chargers (LY: NR, 2023: 37, 2022: 31). Lance may finally be in a situation that's conducive to mining his natural gifts. Lord knows he wasn't going to get that in Dallas. We'll see him as QB2 to Herbert this year.

43. Joe Flacco*, Browns  (LY: 52, 2023: NR, 2022: 28). It's probably an indictment of how bad QB play has gotten in the NFL that Flacco even rates this high, and that he's going to be another team's starter yet again. Seriously, check the "32 starts list" for details on just how bad his career has been.

42. Ryan Tannehill, FA (LY: 25, 2023: 24, 2022: 21). I should probably remove Tannehill from the list as he hasn't played in nearly two years but since his name gets brought up every time there's a potential need for a veteran QB, I'll list him one more time. I do think that a team in need of an emergency option could do a lot worse.

41. Jake Browning, Bengals (LY: 49, 2023 and 2022: NR). If recent history is any guide, Joe Burrow's understudy will be called on to keep Cincinnati's season afloat at some point this year. Browning has proven to be at least adequate in that role.

40. Jimmy Garoppolo, Rams (LY: 30, 2023: 15, 2022: 18). Jimmy G's star is rapidly and deservedly fading; he's a worthy fit for the role he's in (veteran reserve) but that's it. By the way, similar language can be used to describe many of the next guys in this section.

39. Jameis Winston, Giants (LY: 33, 2023: 39, 2022: 25). Few players have such a high variance of performance, from some significant highs to some painful lows. Winston's career is likely nearing its conclusion, as he's likely to finish 2025 as QB3 on a really bad team.

38. Mac Jones, 49ers (LY: 29, 2023: 17, 2022: 17). Jones is the anti-Winston in that he's almost uniformly boring but on balance they settle in as the same sort of player; good enough to draw an NFL paycheck but not good enough to start. The buzz from the 2021 draft (that Shanahan was obsessed with Jones) has finally come to fruition.

37. Mason Rudolph, Steelers (all years: NR). Pittsburgh loves this sort of player (veteran career backup that no one seems to want but for whatever reason does well in Pittsburgh); anyone remember Charlie Batch?

36. Marcus Mariota, Commanders (LY: 32, 2023: 29, 2022: 23). This is what, maybe the fifth former Philly QB to make this list? counts; yup: DTR, Mullins, Wentz, Flacco, Mariota. We're not done yet, either. QB Factory strikes again.

35. Andy Dalton, Panthers (LY: 31, 2023: 27, 2022: NR). Another player that any contending team would be happy to have holding a clipboard, Dalton has been one of the NFL's premier reserves for a few years now and you can see some of that positive influence in Bryce Young's progression.

34. Tanner McKee, Eagles (LY and 2023: NR, 2022: college). Take a long look at most of the guys listed above McKee here and see if you feel a tremendous degree of confidence that they would outperform Tanner, were McKee on their teams. Do you think Philly would trade McKee for Mac Jones? Does Jimmy G have more talent? On the "One Start List", McKee ranks first overall in both passer rating and ANY/A; in other words, he's got the NFL record for passer rating for players who've at least started one game. Also unlike most of those I've ranked behind him, McKee is still ascending.

33. Gardner Minshew, Chiefs (LY: 22, 2023: 28, 2022: NR). As president of the Minshew Fan Club, I'm recusing myself from discussion of my favorite backup, but I'll just point you to the 32 Starts List, where Minshew ranks higher than this in both passer rating and ANY/A.

32. Tyrod Taylor, Jets (LY: 27, 2023 and 2022: NR). Only Aaron Rodger's name recognition kept the Jets from giving Taylor a turn last season; my guess is that we'll see him at some point this year.

31. Daniel Jones*, Colts (LY: 21, 2023: 19, 2022: 27). I'm just going to copy and paste last year's take on Jones, because my opinion really hasn't changed: "This will be year [8] of the Daniel Jones Experience and I still don't have a good sense of who this guy is as a player. We know he's not a superstar but the Giants have been so awful on offense for so long that I'm not sure we can say he's terrible either. No matter what, this coming season is unlikely to provide much clarity."

30. Justin Fields, Jets (LY: 28, 2023: 22, 2022: 30). Honestly, much of what I've just said about Daniel Jones can be echoed here about Fields. I still believe there's untapped potential there that comically inept offenses in Chicago and Pittsburgh have prevented us from seeing.

Group D: Current starters on their way out; these guys are more likely to drop to Group C by next year as any other result.

29. Geno Smith*, Raiders (LY: 23, 2023: 18, 2022: 33). Going back again to the 32 Start List, Geno ranks 29th (out of 44) in passer rating and 33rd in ANY/A. Raiders fans spent a decent amount of energy expressing excitement and optimism over their team's trade for him this offseason; I'm going out on a limb to say they'll be disappointed this year.

28. Sam Darnold*, Seahawks  (LY: 46, 2023: 44, 2022: NR). From this article last year: "The unfortunate season ending injury to JJ McCarthy gives Darnold what is likely his final opportunity to prove he belongs. Considering he's either been a) buried on the bench or b) starting for horrible teams his entire career, I'm curious to see how this plays out. Next year, Darnold will either be higher on this list or on the very bottom." Darnold's emergence under the miracle working tutelage of Kevin O'Connell moves him up nearly 20 spots and got him a big free agent deal in Seattle. Let's see how Darnold responds to the first success of his pro career.

27. Russell Wilson*, Giants (LY: 20, 2023: 21, 2022: 9). "Giants country, let's ride". Sorry, couldn't help myself. Few players this side of Carson Wentz have had such a rapid fall from grace as Wilson, who will do well to simply hold on to a starting spot in 2025.

TIER TWO (players you can win with, but not because of)

26. Kirk Cousins*, Falcons (LY: 13, 2023: 14, 2022: 15). Kirk's on a similar trajectory as Wilson above; between his age, his injury and the overall low ceiling he's always provided there's a nonzero chance we've already seen the last of Cousins as a starter.

25. Aaron Rodgers*, Steelers (LY: 7, 2023: 6, 2022: 1). The oldest player in the NFL will make one final attempt to return to relevance. If he can manage to stay healthy I actually think this might work out OK; Rodgers is still smart and talented enough to thrive with a high-floor team like the Steelers.

Group E: the young guns. These guys have shown varying degrees of promise but we're still finding out just how good they might be.

24. Cam Ward*, Titans (LY: college). A remarkable story (formerly rated as a defensive back who wasn't even in the top 600 at that position in high school, worked his way from Incarnate Word to Miami). My concern with Ward would be that he may eventually be regarded as an overachiever; there's a bit of a Baker Mayfield vibe here. Of course, that eventually worked out pretty well for Mayfield.

23. JJ McCarthy*, Vikings (LY: NR, 2023: college). McCarthy has more raw talent than any of O'Connell's previous projects; he'll have an adjustment period but I think he'll be fine by the end of the season.

22. Bryce Young*, Panthers (LY: 39, 2023: 36, 2022: college). Young continues his slow ascent; I've maintained that he can be a decent pro all along and there's still a chance. We'll see what happens in year two of the Canales era, but it's disappointing that Carolina didn't do more to get him a decent OL.

21. Caleb Williams*, Bears (LY: 38, 2023: college). The book on Williams was pretty obvious; top shelf raw talents but questionable intangibles. Chicago has gone way out of its way to surround Williams with an ideal environment to flourish in year 2, so the excuses are all gone.

20. Drake Maye*, Patriots (LY: 38, 2023: college). It's telling that Maye was the third most productive QB from last year's draft class despite being in easily the worst offense.

19. Michael Penix*, Falcons (LY: 40, 2023: college). This is a projection on my part, but I'm a Penix guy and am predicting that he'll be near the top of these young guys by the end of this year. If you want to project success (or a lack of success) on a college QB, three levels of evaluation matter: accuracy, experience and the ability to elevate the program. Penix nailed all three at that level.

18. Bo Nix*, Broncos (LY: 44, 2023: college). Nix probably landed in the best spot to succeed of any of last year's Big Five; the Broncos are counting on his progression to continue this year as they have built a solid roster.

Group F: the Kirk Cousins All Stars. These are players that have at one time or another been treated (and paid) like elite quarterbacks but aren't. These are players that have combined for 66 years of NFL service but have 15 career playoff wins between them. These guys have combined for $1.42 BILLION (with hundreds of millions more coming in 2025) in career earnings and have one Super Bowl to show for it. To qualify for the Kirk Cousins All Stars, you need to have played at least four years, have moved on to your second contract, and have no good reason for why you've consistently failed to produce at an elite level or win big in the playoffs.

NOTE: this group carries Cousins' name even as he's dropped off, as he is the absolute poster child for this kind of quarterback. I'm making fun of these guys but obviously nearly half of the NFL would love to have someone like this under center; they provide a baseline of competence but not much else. Paying them the big bucks will likely result in disappointment. To summarize, I'm going to paste my go-to comment about Kirk Cousins from the last few years: "His career stats as a passer are perfectly fine, but we all know in our hearts that any deep postseason run he’ll ever have will come on the back of a great defense.” A version of that statement will apply to each of the Kirk Cousins All Stars.

17. Kyler Murray*, Cardinals  (LY: 17, 2023: 23, 2022: 14). I had believed that Murray would have a Lamar Jackson-type effect on the league but that hasn't come close to materializing. Perhaps this is just who he is; a player that can run and pass a bit but won't carry a professional team anywhere.

16. Tua Tagovailoa*, Dolphins (LY: 11, 2023: 9, 2022: 13). Tua's raw efficiency stats are top shelf (top ten in both passer rating and ANY/A on the 32 Starts List) but at some point, don't you have to see more in terms of team success? The glass-half-full approach points out a solid 38-24 record as a starter, but the half-empty approach points out that 38 wins in five years is basically average, and no playoffs wins adds to the frustration. It feels gross to blame Tua for his own injury history but at some point, a guy is who he is in that regard. I guess I expected more from a former top 5 draft pick playing with elite weapons.

15. Baker Mayfield*, Buccaneers (LY: 24, 2023: 48, 2022: 29). Mayfield has made a steady climb in these (and other) rankings but I think we're fast approaching the point where he'll be back to being overrated. Refer to the 32 Starts List (on which he's very middle of the road) for some specifics, but Mayfield hasn't been consistently good as a starter.

14. Matthew Stafford, Rams (LY: 16, 2023: 12, 2022: 8). The four year average ranking in this column slots Stafford between 12th and 13th, so in case what I'm about to say makes you think I'm some sort of Stafford hater, that ranking is still pretty good. However...

I'm going to park here for a bit and explain why I think Stafford is probably the most overrated QB in the league. Ever since his breakout year in 2011 (where he became just the 5th player to have a 5,000 yard passing season), Stafford has generally been listed among the great QBs of his generation. Mike Sando's generally excellent QB Tiers column (which I'd link to but it's paywalled) has slotted Stafford in at 5th leaguewide in both this and last summer's versions. What has Stafford done to merit such praise? Going back once more to the 32 Start List (on which there are only 44 players) we find that Stafford is 21st in passer rating, 19th in ANY/A, 19th in yards per attempt, 14th in success rate and 27th in completion percentage (yawns). We do find that he leads all active players in 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives, but for a player with a career 108-113-1 record as a starer, I'd say that's more of a function of Stafford having to catch up after stinking for three quarters than it is a sign of some secret winning gene. One stat that Stafford does rate highly in: pick six percentage, in which he ranks 6th behind two retired guys, two who will be 3rd string this year and Geno Smith.

"But wait!", defenders will inevitably say, "Stafford spent a lot of time in Detroit when they were awful!" That's partially true, but ignores the fact that the Lions offensive personnel were better than you likely remember (over those years he got to play with Golden Tate, Reggie Bush, Joque Bell, Ameer Abdullah, Eric Ebron, Brandon Pettigrew and others). The defense was likely better than you remember as well; rarely finishing worse than 20th or so and occasionally ranking in the top ten. None of this blows anyone away but the narrative that the Lions were totally trash and would have dragged anyone down is overblown. (thinking), I'm forgetting something from those years... oh right, Megatron, possibly the most physically talented WR ever to exist, a Hall of Famer and a player who gave up on Stafford in his prime. Put another way, if Stafford was secretly some proto-Mahomes, does Johnson retire with all that meat on the bone of his career? You be the judge.

There's more to say on this score; pulling just the QB numbers from 2021 onwards (when Stafford was with offensive guru Sean McVay in LA), he still only rates 15th in passer rating, 11th in ANY/A and 18th in completion percentage. Yes, I'm aware of the Super Bowl victory, but if you point out that one magical 4-0 run through those playoffs (which should have ended with a dropped interception in the NFCCG), I'll see you and raise you the fact that Joe Flacco also has a 4-0 postseason, while Eli Manning has two.

Enough of this; Matthew Stafford is objectively overrated and I'm not sure what else to tell you.

13. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (LY: 12, 2023: 7, 2022: 12). Lawrence's rep is slowly sliding off as he consistently comes up short of his considerable ceiling. I'm still rating him relatively highly but he's running out of chances. Some grace is perhaps due to him, considering the franchise in general and the offensive line in particular has been pretty dysfunctional during his time in the league. I'd like to see him in a real offense at some point.

12. Dak Prescott, Cowboys (LY: 14, 2023: 13, 2022: 10). Prescott has been hovering in this territory for as long as this column has existed; pretty good, but not great. Regular season productivity followed by playoff incompetence (two playoff wins in nine years? yuck). He really is a near-perfect avatar for the Dallas Cowboy Experience: looks good on the outside but something is missing. My prediction: we'll see more of the same this season.

11. Jordan Love, Packers (LY: 9, 2023: 35, 2022: NR). Jordan Love is really talented; he's like Dak Prescott Premium. His size/athleticism/arm talent combo is nearly as good as it gets. Why does he slot down here? Simply put, he's the quintessential Kirk Cousins All Star; he leaves you wanting more. The supporting cast is really talented, so he'll have another crack at moving up, but I said similar things last year and was let down.

10. Jared Goff, Lions (LY: 15, 2023: 11, 2022: 22). Both Goff and Stafford have spent four year in the Sean McVay Incubator, and their stats over those respective four years are nearly at a dead heat. Goff gets the edge here as he's actually gotten better in Detroit and seems to be getting better. Goff lacks most obvious high level traits but his accuracy and football instinct have him actually carrying this offense at times. Seven years ago, if you had told me that Jared Goff would be a borderline top ten QB and Carson Wentz would be on his way out, I'd never have believed you.

9. Justin Herbert, Chargers (LY: 4, 2023: 4, 2022: 4). I've generally been a Herbert fanboy as you can tell by the longtime high placement in these rankings, but I'm finally at the point where I want to see more than regular season production and high level traits. This guy is turning into the Evolutionary Stafford, where evaluators fall in love with high draft status, elite traits and gaudy stats but become blind to the lack of meaningful team success. We're nowhere near that place yet with Herbert (he's still ninth on this list, for crying out loud), but I'm no longer willing to give too much benefit of the doubt. For the time being, Justin Herbert is the King of the Kirk Cousins All Stars.

Group G: Brock Purdy.

8. Brock Purdy, 49ers (LY: 10, 2023: 20: 2022: NR). We're on to year four of the Brock Purdy Experience and I'm still not sure what to make of this kid. Check the 32 Start List and you'll see Purdy basically laps the field in most of the efficiency related metrics. Unless you're a 49er fan (where you generally think that Purdy is the second coming of Joe Montana), the book on Purdy is pretty clear: good kid, great story (did you guys know that he was Mr. Irrelevant?!? Mr. Irrelevant is the term for the last player drafted blah blah blah), probably a front runner and probably needs to play in a great system with great players to have high level success. Those last two statements sound far more harsh than I intend (most QBs need support to succeed, clearly), but we caught a glimpse of a more mortal Purdy on a banged up team last season. Now that his contract situation has gone from "best bargain in NFL history" to "probably a little overpaid", we'll begin to get a more clear view of what Brock Purdy actually is.

TIER ONE / Group H (players that can win games on their own, consistently)

7. CJ Stroud, Texans  (LY:8, 2023: 49, 2022: college). I'm probably giving Stroud a little too much credit for his remarkable rookie season, but he should get a bit of a pass for dealing with that awful offensive line last year. Stroud is one of just six QBs to win at least one playoff game in each of their first two years in the league.

6. Jayden Daniels, Commanders  (LY: 37, 2023 and 2022: college). I was on record last year in saying that I thought Daniels would be the best of last year's rookie class, but I didn't see THAT coming; one of the very finest seasons by a rookie QB ever. Daniels seemed to just know what to do on nearly every play, rare for even veteran QBs. Now the barrier becomes the sophomore slump, which (contrary to what Commanders fans are currently saying) is a legitimate concern. Few of the really great rookie seasons were improved on in year 2 (RG3 in 2013 and Stroud last year really come to mind). Let's keep in mind that Washington inexplicably went out of its way to import one of the architects of Stroud's sophomore slump (Tunsil) to protect Daniels' blind side.

5. Jalen Hurts, Eagles (LY: 6, 2023: 3, 2022: 11). Jalen remains a tough evaluation for most of us for multiple reasons: 1) Is he simply a product of a great supporting cast like Purdy? 2) Are his modest passing numbers proof that he really isn't a high level quarterback? 3) How much do intangibles REALLY matter? Jalen's play by play efficiency stats as a starter are "just" good (he's modestly ahead of Matthew Stafford in passer rating and ANY/A on the 32 Starts List), but more advanced stats that factor in rushing and accuracy tell a better story. Any nuanced statistical analysis will slot Jalen in the top ten as his floor, and looking at some of the win/loss stats tells a more full picture: Consider the following:

• Among active QBs who have started at least eight games from 2020 on, Jalen's total W/L % of 69.33% ranks 4th

• Jalen is 18-12 (regular season) against eventual playoff teams, 21-12 against teams finishing with a winning record and 10-6 against top eight defenses.

• Jalen's six playoff wins are tied for for the 6th most in NFL history for a player's first five seasons in the league

• Those same six postseason wins are third most of all players on the top 24 of this list (behind Mahomes and Josh Allen)

• Only Mahomes has more playoff wins since Jalen became a starter in 2021

You can find a couple quarterbacks who have played with similar or better supporting casts who have not won at this level (I'm looking at you, Lamar). Throw in Jalen's notable leadership intangibles, the fact that he's won a Super Bowl MVP award and was the best player on the field in a different SB, the fact that Jalen played pretty well in 2024 for a player that "struggled" as a passer (5th in passer rating and lead the league in PFF's adjusted completion percentage (a nuanced measure of accuracy, that adjusts completion percentage for drops, throwaways, spikes, batted passes, etc.), and I don't think you'll find five players that I'd definitely prefer to have leading my team.

4. Joe Burrow, Bengals (LY: 5, 2023: 2, 2022: 7). Burrow is so good, had he ended up in a really good and balanced situation (Philly, Baltimore, Detroit), he may well be #1 easily. His Cincinnati experience is proof positive that an elite passing game is not, in fact, all you need to contend. The Bengals' passing game has probably been the best in the league over the last couple years but once the rest of their team went to pot, they've basically been a .500 squad. Couple that issue with Burrow's health track record and he settles here.

3. Lamar Jackson, Ravens  (LY: 3, 2023: 8, 2022: 6). Jackson is the anti-Hurts in that he has obvious freakish talent and an off-the-chart record of productivity... but just three playoff wins to show for it. It's not just "he keeps running into Mahomes" either; just one of those five playoff losses came to the Chiefs. Three of the five came at home, and in Jackson's eight playoff games the Ravens have averaged 21.3 PPG, which is pretty mediocre. I'm genuinely trying not to be too hard on Lamar, who I've been a longtime fan of and who I've ranked consistently highly, but at some point regular season production can only take you so far. The playoff failures make it difficult to elevate Jackson into that immortal territory.

2. Josh Allen, Bills (LY: 2, 2023: 5, 2022: 3). Allen dragged an objectively average roster to within a sketchy spot on a QB sneak of the Super Bowl. He deserved the MVP award for that reason alone. Allen may well get to #1 next year if he can break the Mahomes curse; unlike Jackson, Allen has had plenty of cracks at the Chiefs in the playoffs and has yet to beat them there (0-4). It may just be a matter of time, as Allen's Bills have beaten Mahomes' Chiefs in four of five regular season meetings.

1. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (LY: 1, 2023: 1, 2022: 2). The top dog till someone proves otherwise. Mahomes' run as a starter has been extraordinary: the league's leading passer since 2018, seven consecutive AFC title game appearances with five Super Bowl appearances and three titles. His 17 playoff wins are easily the lead among active players and already second all time. He's still the unanimous answer to the question "Who would you trade your QB for, no questions asked".

Mahomes is also the answer to the question "Who won a Super Bowl MVP that really belonged to Jalen Hurts?".