An in-depth review of the 2025 Philadelphia Eagles' schedule, including record projection.
- Luke Snavely
- Sep 4
- 9 min read
PREVIOUS 2025 PREVIEW ARTICLES
Quick review: in 2022's version of this column I picked the Eagles to win 11 games (they won 14). In 2023 I had them down for 11 games again (they did indeed win 11). Last season I picked them to rack up 13 wins (they hit 14). The general trend has been to be fairly accurate but usually undersell how Philly will turn out.
Let’s make some comments about this year’s slate of opponents. A few quick notes before we begin:
The point spread offered is merely a data-driven guess at the scoring margin, not necessarily how I would handicap the game. The “assessment” is probably more instructive.
When Vegas gives a line of three points or less, they are mostly saying “We have no conviction about this outcome”; I call these games Toss Ups as the game could realistically go either way. Lines from 3.5 points up to seven are more certain, something like a 75% win probability for the favorite. Lines above seven points indicate a Solid Favorite with something like a 90% win probability.
I didn't go into detail, but I gave a thought or two about each NFL team in this morning's piece; that might shed a little light on why I picked some of these games the way I did.
WEEK 1: Cowboys (initial assessment: solid favorite, point spread: -10). Last season's total margin of victory of 62 points was the largest for either team since 1969. Prescott's injury had more than a little to do with that (of course, Philly was without Hurts for the second game, but whatever). Dallas will still be in the throes of the chaos of the Parsons trade and one wonders how mentally ready they'll be for this game. The Eagles have a 16-9 all-time record in prime time games under Sirianni. Philly should win this pretty comfortably.
WEEK 2: @Chiefs (toss up, +1.5). These two teams have turned into unlikely rivals; seriously, how often do teams from opposite conferences meet five consecutive seasons? Each team has taken two of the four meetings but you'd be hard pressed to make the case that the momentum hasn't swung in Philly's favor, after the buttkicking that the Birds put on KC in February. This game will not be easy for the Eagles (hence the slight underdog status I'm estimating here), and I think the result really comes down to how well the Chiefs have reset themselves from the letdown of missing out on the threepeat. That's anyone's guess, but I'm thinking the psychological impact of that failure haunts the Chiefs this year. Philly will have a bit of a rest edge, and Sirianni has been remarkably good away from home (25-10 regular season in his career).
WEEK 3: Rams (solid favorite, -15). Philly has owned the Rams to a surprising degree in the McVay era, with a 5-1 record against LA. The Rams' roster is top heavy and led by a significantly overrated 37 year old QB. I've yet to hear anyone suggest that the Rams are actually better than the Eagles (even the people that think LA is a Super Bowl contender don't go that far). If you think the Rams are pulling this upset, where are you hanging your hat?
WEEK 4: @Buccaneers (favorite, -4). Tampa is sort of the anti-Rams in terms of how this series has gone; they've beaten Philly in six of the last seven meetings, including a 4-1 record against the Hurts/Sirianni Eagles. Dallas is the only other team with as many wins against Philly in that stretch. On paper, the Eagles are comfortably better but that was true the last two times these teams met, and the Birds lost those 32-9 and 33-16. On the other hand, AJ Brown missed both of those games; hopefully he'll play this time.
NOTE: considering how many new pieces Philly is breaking in on defense and that there's yet another new play caller on offense, a slow start is not unreasonable to predict. Remember that in 2017 and 2024, the Eagles went 5-3 combined in these first four weeks. They scored a total of 189 points in those eight games and allowed 188. In other words, after four weeks the last two championship Eagles teams were almost exactly average. The moral of this story is that unless the Birds open 0-4, we probably shouldn't make too much of what we see by this point.
WEEK 5: Broncos (solid favorite, -9). I do think that Denver will be a return playoff team this year as their rebuild has gone well. On paper there are few if any weaknesses on this roster. That said, Philly is just the better team and I want to see how the Broncos handle expectations (which will be high) and a much tougher schedule.
WEEK 6: @Giants (solid favorite, -14). Here's the annual reminder of how well the Eagles have done against the Midgets: 37-17 overall this century. TWELVE season sweeps in that time. The Giants do not have back to back wins in this series since 2021, no sweeps since 2007 and no playoff wins against the Birds since 2000. Since the galaxy brains that run the Midgets got rid of Tom Coughlin, Philly has taken 15 of 19 from New York. This can go on and on, but we'll call off the dogs there.
WEEK 7: @Vikings (toss up, -2.5). The Eagles have met the Kevin O'Connell coached Vikings twice, both in the Linc; two victories. The most recent of those (in 2023) took every ounce of good luck the Birds could muster, as they recovered all five fumbles and still only won by six. Minnesota's roster has few weaknesses but may be vulnerable in the secondary. The Vikings will probably go as far as new starter JJ McCarthy will take them.
WEEK 8: Giants (heavy favorite, -20). We've already beaten the Giants into the ground a couple paragraphs earlier, so let's talk about the division in general: the Birds are 93-57 (62%) overall against the NFC East's other three teams this century; that works out to 3.72 wins per season. Many seasons you can just pencil in a 4-2 record against the NFC East when picking these games and you'll be correct more often than not.
WEEK 9: BYE. Unlike the last couple seasons, Philly's bye comes at a reasonable midseason spot. As usual, there are a pretty wide range of potential outcomes but I'd say the most likely record is 6-2, with 5-3 a close second. Philly will need the break, as they'll enter into the most pivotal three game run of the season as they come out of the week off.
WEEK 10: @Packers (toss up, -0.5). Eagles-Packers has provided us with our fair share of big moments over the years. Sirianni has gotten the better of Green Bay in each of the three meetings they've had over those four seasons. The events of this offseason (the Packers pushing to ban the Brotherly Shove and the Parsons trade) add to the intrigue. This will be Jalen's first visit to Lambeau since a loss in December of 2020. Philly will have the rest edge here, coming off their bye. This game is nearly a perfect toss up, the way things stand right now.
WEEK 11: Lions (favorite, -3.5). It seems we've been waiting for this game for years, as these two have arguably been the best in the NFC for the last three seasons or so. The Eagles knocked off the Lions in both 2021 and 2022, but that was before things really got going for Dan Campbell's team. I believed for much of last year that Detroit was the only team that would have been favored over the Eagles until injuries destroyed their defense. The Eagles are 4-1 all time against Jared Goff, for whatever that's worth. By this point we'll know the degree that Detroit is missing their well-regarded coordinator combo. I do like the Birds in this matchup at home but if both teams are healthy, this is another classic toss up.
WEEK 12: @Cowboys (favorite, -4). Ten of the last eleven times that the Eagles or Cowboys have won the division, the winner of the final game in which the starters played was the team that prevailed in the NFC East. In short, if both teams are still in the hunt for the division at this point, this game will be critical and (historically speaking) decisive. Of course, this is a little earlier than usual for the final Eagles-Cowboys game, and Washington will also have something to say about the division as well.
Stretch run checkup: I've long said that the NFL season really begins on Thanksgiving weekend. As usual, there's a pretty wide range of outcomes here but I believe the most likely record at this point to be 8-3. If that feels too pessimistic, look again at the schedule to this point and realize that it's possible Philly will have played NINE games against playoff contenders so far.
WEEK 13: Bears (big favorite, -10.5). On paper I think Philly is head and shoulders above Chicago but these holiday weekend games rarely go as planned. The Eagles have not played a Thanksgiving Weekend game that was decided by more than seven points since they win by 25 against... Chicago in 2017.
WEEK 14: @Chargers (favorite, -4.5). Since the NFL returned to LA in 2017, the Birds have made five trips to the southern California and have won all five. The Chargers are one of the few teams built to compete with a physical Eagles squad. LA is a high floor but low ceiling team that might hang around, but the Birds ought to be able to outlast them.
WEEK 15: Raiders (heavy favorite, -20). Two things about this projection give me pause: first, I've had some bad luck picking these megalines (had similar numbers for Washington last year and Arizona in 2023). Second, Pete Carroll is 8-1 lifetime against Philly, with the only loss coming way back in 1999. Those items aside, I think Vegas will be pretty rough this year (Geno Smith? Really?) and by this point might not have much left to play for. It's safe to say that we'll be un-pleasantly surprised if the Raiders are within single digits of Philly in this game.
WEEK 16: @Commanders (favorite, -8). I talked about my issues with Washington in this morning's power rankings column, so I won't rehash them here. Suffice to say that I think Philly is better than the Commanders in a vacuum (it's not close, see last year's NFC title game preview for some details that are still pertinent), and that doesn't account for the threat of a Daniels injury (he's listed at 210 pounds but isn't). Without Daniels this is a four win roster. This has been a weird rivalry for much of the century to date; I've not gone into a season feeling like we're looking up at Washington maybe ever, yet the series has been unexpectedly tight (Eagles lead it 32-19 starting in 2000). Bottom line of all of this is that while I would pick Philly to win both of these games and finish higher in the stands, history tells us that an upset is always on the table.
WEEK 17: @Bills (toss up, -1). Who wants to spend New Year's in Buffalo? This game is awkwardly placed on the schedule, wedged as it is between the Commanders contests and set to practically guarantee Artic weather. This is a potential Super Bowl preview (Eagles-Bills is currently tied for the most likely SB matchup on Draftkings with Eagles-Ravens). Philly has beaten Josh Allen in both previous meetings, once back in 2019 and again in 2023 in one of the most remarkable games I've ever seen. As of now I would not be excited to pick Philly to win this game, but a LOT will happen between now and then.
WEEK 18: Commanders (big favorite, -14). The national media will be appalled to hear that anyone thinks Washington may be eliminated by now, but I think that's a real possibility. If that's true, I’m going to dig out a tried-and-true favorite stat of mine that would apply here: in the last 15 years, there have been seventeen regular season Eagles games that met the following criteria: 1) were played in December or January, 2) were NFC East games, 3) one team was eliminated, the other was in playoff contention and 4) the starters didn't sit. This situation may apply here, and the good news is that the contending team went 15-2 with an average scoring margin of +9.2 PPG. It seems like a narrow field of criteria, and it is, but my takeaway is that the classic “late season divisional trap game” isn't as big of a threat as it sometimes appears.
Breaking it down simply: I have four games rated as a toss up (@Chiefs, @Vikings, @Packers, @Bills), seven with the Birds rated as a favorite (Cowboys, @Bucs, Broncos, Lions, @Cowboys, @Chargers, @Commanders) and six more with Philly as a prohibitive favorite (Rams, @Giants, Giants, Bears, Raiders, Commanders) . If they win two or three of the toss ups, they can survive a couple upsets and get to 12-5 pretty easily.
How are you predicting the final record?
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