Revisiting 2024 preseason predictions.
- Luke Snavely
- Jul 28
- 8 min read
The 2025 NFL season is just over a month away (just saying that is a little surreal!). File this piece in the just-for-fun folder; I thought it would be amusing to look back at what I wrote in my 2024 records prediction column to see what went right (hello, Eagles and Bucs!) and what went horribly wrong (hello, Jets and Browns!). Record projection and commentary from last summer in italics; hindsight commentary follows.
AFC EAST
New York Jets (13-4). Naturally this projection is based on getting the version of Aaron Rodgers that I ranked 7th league wide. The Jets have a top shelf defense, an improved OL and dangerous weapons across the field. If the QB play is solid, this team is a contender. Even if Rodgers can't do it anymore, you can win a lot of games with Tyrod Taylor + a top defense.
Actual record: 5-12, 3rd in AFC East, missed playoffs. Aaron Rodgers gets most of the blame for this disaster in the public eye, but he didn't play nearly as awfully as his public reputation. This likely speaks more to the chaos of an ownership group that dumped the coach and GM separately at different points of the season.
Miami Dolphins (10-7). Miami remains what they’ve been; a solid playoff contender but lacking just enough to hope for much more.
Actual record: 8-9, 2nd in AFC East, missed playoffs. The Dolphins were in the Wild Card hunt till week 18 but never really gave anyone the sense they were going anywhere. The roster is starting to rot and we may be discussing a whole new regime in Miami at this time next year.
Buffalo Bill (8-9). This team may well be the Josh Allen show without much support for the QB; a rugged schedule doesn’t help.
Actual record: 13-4, won AFC East, lost AFC Championship Game. Missed badly on this one! Josh Allen deservedly won an MVP award for dragging this average roster to within a QB sneak of the Super Bowl.
New England Patriots (4-13). Solid contender for the top overall pick next April. Offense might be the league’s worst.
Actual record: 4-13, 4th in AFC East, missed playoffs. Pretty much nailed this. NE finished tied for the league's second worst record and had the 30th ranked offense by OSRS.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens (12-5). Baltimore will always win games; this team's perception of success is completely dependent on how the playoffs go.
Actual record: 12-5, won AFC North, lost AFC Division playoff. The Ravens remain one of the league's most talented teams; they also retained their "can't get in done when it matters" label.
Cleveland Browns (11-6). With even average QB play, this team is a serious contender. They were a playoff team last year with Joe Flacco and PJ Walker playing significant roles.
Actual record: 3-14, 4th in AFC North, missed playoffs. Haha, whoops. Perhaps the Browns really are cursed; their roster was far more talented than this result. Having an absolute black hole at the QB position doesn't help. Cleveland is another statement to the importance of competent ownership.
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8). Mike Tomlin's streaks of winning records and winless postseasons both continue.
Actual record: 10-7, 2nd in AFC North, lost Wild Card game. Right on both counts.
Cincinnati Bengals (8-9). What used to be a well rounded team is pretty much down to the passing game, and that depends on the health of the always-injured Burrow.
Actual record: 9-8, 3rd in AFC North, missed playoffs. Like Miami above, the Bengals hung around the playoff picture the entire year but came up short. Having the league's best passing offense is apparently not enough to compensate for lacking all other positive attributes.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans (9-8). If Stroud can duplicate his rookie act, perhaps Houston improves their record from last year. They'll have to do it without the benefit of surprise this time.
Actual record: 10-7, 1st in AFC South, lost in Divisional round. On balance, Houston remained a mostly average team that has taken advantage of maybe the league's worst division.
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8). Dougie P has been within a win or loss of .500 every year but two of his seven year coaching career; this would make six of eight.
Actual record: 4-13, 3rd in AFC South, missed playoffs. Jacksonville's sudden decline cost Pederson his job (again).
Indianapolis Colts (6-11). I'm not an Anthony Richardson believer. If I'm wrong, the Colts will do better than this.
Actual record: 8-9, 2nd in AFC South, missed playoffs. The league's worst QB room continued to drag a half decent roster down.
Tennessee Titans (5-12). The Titans are switching up offensive philosophies; no Derrick Henry + major question marks at QB + a weak defense = trouble.
Actual record: 3-14, 4th in AFC South, missed playoffs. "Trouble" proved to be an understatement, as the league's worst record forced the Titans to clean house.
AFC WEST
Kansas City Chiefs (12-5). To hit this win mark, KC really needs older vets Kelce and Jones to hold off Father Time. I still think they pull off a division title, at least, but I believe the AFC West will be competitive.
Actual record: 15-2, 1st in AFC West, lost Super Bowl. It didn't take more than a peak past the gaudy record to see a rotten core (11-0 in one score games?). As we know, the good luck ran out when Philly exposed them in the Big Game.
Los Angeles Chargers (12-5). I think Jim Harbaugh will have a similar effect here that he had in SF (improved from 6 to 13 wins in one season); the Chargers are way too talented to be as mediocre as they've been lately.
Actual record: 11-6, 2nd in AFC West, lost Wild Card. The Harbaugh Effect did in fact play out, with a six win improvement in year one.
Denver Broncos (6-11). Too many roster question marks for a team lead by a rookie QB; can you name one thing the Broncos will do well this season?
Actual record: 10-7, lost in Wild Card game. Both the rookie QB and the defense outperformed expectations, and Denver was a surprise contender. Denver actually did fairly many things well, to answer my ill-considered question.
Las Vegas Raiders (5-12). Issues at QB and in the back seven of the defense sink hopes for much of an improvement.
Actual record: 4-13, 4th in AFC West, missed playoffs. Vegas is starting over at HC and QB once again after last year's predictable disaster.
Projected AFC playoff seeding:
Jets
Chiefs
Ravens
Texans
Chargers
Browns
Dolphins
Actual AFC playoff seeding:
Chiefs
Bills
Ravens
Texans
Chargers
Steelers
Broncos
NFC EAST
Philadelphia Eagles (13-4). If healthy, this may be the best roster in football (see roster deep dives for details).
Actual record: 14-3, 1st in NFC East, Won Super Bowl. The roster was healthy, turned out to be the best in football, and beat four good QBs (Love, Stafford, Daniels, Mahomes) in the playoffs on the way to their second SB title.
Dallas Cowboys (11-6). Dallas fails to continue their streak of twelve win seasons and fails to break the curse of the defending NFC East champion.
Actual record: 7-10, 3rd in NFC East, missed playoffs. The preseason narrative was correct, but injuries to a series of key players drug Dallas to a losing record.
Washington Commanders (5-12). This isn't a good roster but if Jaylen Daniels is a rookie star, there's enough here to get Washington on the fringes of the playoff picture.
Actual record: 12-5, 2nd in NFC East, lost NFC Championship game. What's the value of a high level rookie quarterback? Apparently about seven wins. Washington was probably a seven win roster that played like a ten win team and actually won twelve games. It's fair to say that the Commanders were both a great story but more than a little overrated by the end of the year (more to come on this in a future article).
New York Giants (5-12). Like Washington above, this is not a good roster. Unlike Washington above, there's no dynamic rookie QB to offer much hope. Honestly, five wins might be a bit optimistic.
Actual record: 3-14, 4th in NFC East, missed playoffs. Five wins was, in fact, too optimistic.
NFC NORTH
Detroit Lions (12-5). This team has put on a masterclass in rebuilding a roster. I think this will be the closest divisional race this season but Detroit pulls it out on tiebreakers.
Actual record: 15-2, 1st in NFC North, lost in Divisional round. Detroit likely had the league's best team until injuries destroyed their defense.
Green Bay Packers (12-5). On paper this is an elite and well rounded roster. If the young weapons take another step forward and the OL and secondary hold up, this might be a Super Bowl winning team.
Actual record: 11-6, 3rd in NFC North, lost in Wild card game. Green Bay won a lot of games but seemed to be one step short of "elite" all year. Jordon Love failed to take the next step that some thought he might.
Chicago Bears (8-9). Even if Caleb Williams is a cross between Stroud and RG3, I struggle to see this team doing much better than eight or nine wins. The weakness in the trenches may well be too much for Chicago to overcome.
Actual record: 5-12, 4th in NFC North, missed playoffs. The roster was indeed not quite ready, Caleb Williams was not ready either, and the coach was in over his head.
Minnesota Vikings (7-10). Minnesota can contend for the playoffs if they get the USC version of Sam Darnold. If they get the NFL version, they won't.
Actual record: 14-3, 2nd in NFC North, lost in Wild Card game. Update: the Vikings got the USC version of Darnold and did, in fact, make the playoffs in yet another Kevin O'Connell miracle coaching job.
NFC SOUTH
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8). The offense is average at best but an excellent defense and special teams unit are enough to win this weak division for the fifth year in a row.
Actual record: 10-7, 1st in NFC South, lost in Wild Card game. Had the right idea but the wrong reason as a resurgent Baker Mayfield and the offense largely carried this team. The defenses' many injuries likely had more to do with that unit's shortcoming than anything.
Atlanta Falcons (8-9). The offense should be improved but with the limited ceiling that Kirk Cousins tends to provide. The defense is bad.
Actual record: 8-9, 2nd in NFC South, missed playoffs. Yea, verily, this all came to pass.
New Orleans Saints (7-10). This is an aging, mediocre roster led by an aging, mediocre QB. Getting to .500 should be viewed as a success.
Actual record: 5-12, 4th in NFC South, missed playoffs. Derek Carr was indeed aging and mediocre but was still better than the QBs that replaced him.
Carolina Panthers (4-13). Better than last year but still might be the worst team in football.
Actual record: 5-12, 3rd in NFC South, missed playoffs. Showed some signs of life down the stretch. It's a testament to how bad this team has been that a 5 win year is looked at as a success by some of their fans.
NFC WEST
San Francisco 49ers (12-5). SF takes a step back due to age and a difficult schedule.
Actual record: 6-11, 4th in NFC West, missed playoffs. Injuries ripped this ageing roster apart (to no one's surprise), and the 9ers fell farther than expected.
Seattle Seahawks (9-8). Geno Smith produces a third consecutive nine win season and a second Wild Card berth. Not sure much else happens here.
Actual record: 10-7, 2nd in NFC West, missed playoffs. Basically played out as expected. Seattle then swapped one failed former Jets QB for another and will see if the result is better.
Los Angeles Rams (7-10). Glass half full: the Rams finished 2023 on a 7-2 tear with the only losses to Baltimore in OT and Detroit by one. Glass half empty: this team hasn't been very good on the whole since their Super Bowl win (15-20 all told) and just lost their best player. I'm more in the second camp; I just don't see enough proven talent on this team, especially on defense.
Actual record: 10-7, 1st in NFC West, lost in Divisional Round game. Better than expected contributions from young defensive players helped LA outperform expectations and pull a playoff upset. I still don't think this roster has nearly enough good players to merit the preseason buzz they are currently getting.
Arizona Cardinals (4-13). If everything breaks just right, you can see a Wild Card team here if you squint. Unfortunately, you don't need to squint to see that this team is still led by this guy and this guy.
Actual record: 8-9, 3rd in NFC West, missed playoffs. Arizona was much closer to their best case scenario last year but never seemed to be a genuine threat.
Projected playoff seeding:
Eagles
Lions
49ers
Buccaneers
Packers
Cowboys
Seahawks
Actual NFC playoff seeding:
Lions
Eagles
Buccaneers
Rams
Vikings
Commanders
Packers
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