The Eagles fumble a game away.

NOTE: coming in late in part due to company coming in for the holiday week, and partly due to the fact that I wanted to digest such a weird loss.

This one stank, no doubt about it, but to be frank I'm not sure we should feel too incredibly bad about the game in a vacuum: this was more of the same kind of thing that we've seen all year. Solid defense, hit and miss offense, largely inert passing game, result hinged on turnovers. My hope is that the team takes the next couple of days of brutal beating that they'll take from the Philly media and uses it as motivation to make the needed adjustments (if losing a winnable and important division game isn't enough motivation). Like most Eagles games this season, the result turned on a couple of plays, and this time they did not go the Eagles' way.

A few key stats and facts to know:

1. Jalen Hurts is generally a pretty efficient passer but a disturbing long term trend I've noticed is that the team rarely succeeds when Jalen is a high volume passer. The average team throws the ball about 33.5 times per game; including today, the Eagles are only 14-9 (60.9%) Hurts' starts in which he throws the ball 34 or more times. They are 40-13 (75.5%) otherwise (excluding last season's Washington defeat that Jalen didn't finish).

2. Philly has been without Lane Johnson for more snaps this season than any since probably 2016 but it hasn't bitten them before today. Including today's result, Philly is just 20-28 when Lane fails to play at least half the snaps. They are 104-53-1 (66.1%) otherwise.

3. Neither team won the turnover battle by the end of the day, but Dallas did win the fumble war (recovered 3 of the 4 fumbles) including the critical ball that bounced out of bounds on their go-ahead drive late.

4. Jalen Hurts wasn't statistically awful (99.2 passer rating and led the team in rushing) but clearly didn't elevate the offense in the second half. He remained turnover free to give the team a chance but also failed to keep the chains moving with any consistency. I still don't believe the offense is irrevocably broken (AJ went over 100 yards, so at least he should be happy) but it's time for the staff to admit that things aren't working and make some tweaks. I don't think it needs to be more than tweaks, as they are clearly still capable of gaining yards and scoring points; just need more consistency.

5. Saquon Barkley's 22 rushing yards were his worst effort in an Eagles uniform. It's clear at this point that his legs are tired from his nearly 500 touches last season. The banged up OL hasn't helped either. Here's hoping this is a one year thing, as further struggles of this sort will clearly cause the team to regret that gratuitous offseason extension. It may be time to consider a platoon for this year, as the other three RBs on the roster have collectively averaged 6.6 yards per carry so far. By the way, the current assertion among the Philly beat that "the Eagles can't run the ball!" is clearly overblown; what's correct is that, for whatever reason, Barkley can't run the ball this year. Philly's 4.78 YPC in non-Barkley and non-kneeldown runs would rank 8th leaguewide. Again, a platoon may be beneficial.

6. I don't really like using this sort of fact as an excuse, but it should be pointed out that Dallas' season was on the line on Sunday. Had they lost to Philly, they would have been 4-6-1 with five of those losses being NFC games. Such a position would have required them to win out (against a schedule including the Chiefs, Lions and Chargers) to have any real chance of getting to the playoffs. Philly, on the other hand, had come off two intense prime time games against NFC rivals Green Bay and Detroit. From a human nature standpoint, there's no chance Philly wanted this game as badly as Dallas did.

7. The Eagles are 2-3 so far this season when they fail to win the turnover battle.

8. Rarely if ever can I recall an offense that runs so hot and cold (I hate to do this, but it reminds me of the Chip Kelly years). The offense was red hot in the 1H against Dallas (both times), second half against LA, and the first half against Tampa. The offense was completely inert in the second half against Dallas (both times), the first half against LA, the second half against Tampa, and nearly two full games against both Green Bay and Detroit. Some context is worth considering (bad weather, good defenses, etc) but the inconsistency is maddening.

9. Philly's schedule so far has been brutal, with 8 of 11 games so far against teams that are .500 or above. I mentioned in the preseason that 8-3 seemed to be the most likely record at this point in the season, and if any of us had looked at this past three games and found out that we'd go 2-1, I think we'd take that result.

Looking ahead, let's pretend that Philly finally figures out how to balance the offense properly (looks difficult but hardly impossible, see 2024 season). The defense is still playing really well and playing complementary football is still a remarkably successful strategy. Philly's final six games are against the Bears (probably the worst 8-3 team in NFL history), the Raiders (an absolutely awful team), two games against the Commanders (awful too, largely because of injuries) and the Bills and Chargers. There's no reason to think that the Birds won't get twelve wins, if not more.

Having said that, I think we've all seen more than enough of this offense going horribly stagnant for long periods of time. I think there are several issues (OL health, fatigue for players like Barkley and Brown, difficult schedule) that can be fixed, or at least can't be changed, but the overly passive downfield passing game and overall imbalance of the attack (seems to be weighted too heavily to the run game or the pass game, depending on the matchup) has to be smoothed over. It's hard to ascertain how much toxicity is going on behind closed doors yet, but if there's anything to that it will need to be dealt with to avoid a 2023-like ending to the season. Things need to get back on track soon, and tomorrow against the overrated Bears is likely a good time to do that.

Happy Thanksgiving to all and Go Birds!