THEY CAN'T KEEP GETTING AWAY WITH THIS! Or, where do wins actually come from?

Going into the 2010 NFL draft, ESPN unofficially kicked off their "Year of the QB" series of articles and other content, focusing on the importance of the position to football success. The general consensus of this content was that a football team (especially an NFL team) needed an elite, superstar QB to have a shot at contention and if you didn't have one, you were screwed. It was likely my perception and not complete reality, but it certainly seemed to me that this was the moment where NFL attention to and value of the quarterback position finally went overboard and completely divorced itself from reality. After all, this year was dead center in the middle of a stretch that saw the following QBs win either national championships and Super Bowls: Eli Manning (twice), Joe Flacco, broken down Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn, Greg McElroy, AJ McCarron (twice), Cardale Jones, Jacob Coker. That list represents eight thoroughly average QBs that combined to win ten of the eighteen available major championships in that period of time. Further insanity can be found in the quarterbacks that were drafted in the first round after those seasons (2008-2016): Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Andrew Luck, RG3, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, EJ Manuel, Blake Bortles, Johnny Football, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch. I listed in bold the players that I believe justified their draft spot (naturally, quibbles can be had but this point will stand no matter what), and I make only six out of 25. Especially glaring was that 2011 draft that saw Locker, Gabbert and Ponder, three obvious future backups, go in the top 12 selections. It's clear that the emphasis placed on the passing game forces teams to overdraft QBs in service of appearing to address the position.

We've also seen this in the way teams are handing out contracts to quarterbacks; this is a widely shared talking point as at least some of the media seems to be waking up to it, but some of these extensions to mediocre QBs have gotten way out of control. Why hamstring your cap for a guy that isn't going to put you over the top? Details can be found in the "Kirk Cousins All Stars" section of my QB ranks column from early September, but suffice to say there are 8-10 different teams that would probably love an amnesty clause for their QB contract right now.

OK, so we've established that the NFL is overly QB-mad. Doesn't an elite QB or passing game still represent a guaranteed ticket to success? Well yes, but actually no. As previously discussed here and here on this site, having the superior pass game is beneficial but far from a guarantee of championship success. A more extreme and current example is the Bengals of the last couple years, who have arguably the league's best passing game but have been on the struggle bus during that time due to the fact that they literally do nothing else well. Similar things could be said about the Dolphins or even the Cowboys; those three teams all rank in the top eight in passing yards collectively from 2023 on, and have nothing meaningful to show for it (zero playoff wins between them).

This brings us up to this week and the current toxic climate swirling around Monday night's win and this Eagles team in general. John McMullin of Jakib Sports has repeatedly said concerning the Birds that "they can't keep winning this way, and yet they do", or various variations of that sentiment. I mean no disrespect to John, who's one of the best Eagles beat guys out there, but everything we've talked about here (including that comment) points at the heart of the issue: how SHOULD NFL teams look at wins and losses? What is the best pathway to getting wins? Is it truly a high volume, high efficiency passing attack? How do the answers to these questions impact how we think about the 2025 Eagles?

To find out, I pulled the game info for every regular season NFL game from 2021 through Monday night to see which box score items have predictive value. I looked at net yards, net passing yards, net rushing yards, net turnovers, yards per play, time of possession, net sacks and net first downs (thanks to the incomparable stathead.com). Unsurprisingly, each of these stats showed at least some predictive value (meaning that teams who outperformed opponents in a given measure tended to win more often than not). Here's the table of what I found:

	Games	W	L	T	Win %
Won turnover battle?	948	733	212	3	77.50%
Won yardage battle?	1233	857	372	4	69.70%
Won rushing battle?	1229	841	384	4	68.60%
Won downs battle?	1159	783	372	4	67.70%
Won ToP battle?	1163	758	405	0	65.20%
Won sack battle?	1142	739	400	3	64.80%
Won YPP battle?	1236	776	456	4	62.90%
Won passing battle?	1231	739	488	4	60.20%

NOTE on the data; not all categories sample the same amount of games for the simple reason that not all games have a clear winner in the given statistic. For example, the Eagles' week 3 victory over the Rams does not qualify for the turnover battle stat as each team turned the ball over once. Further note; pulling these kinds of stats for a single game can be misleading for sample size purposes, but this is a statistically significant sample size of 1,236 games.

Three things ought to jump out at you: first, passing stats are not as heavily valued as we're commonly lead to believe. You see that in the relatively weak predictive value in total passing yards and in the YPP data, a measure that typically would favor teams with an explosive passing attack. Second, turnover margin effectively laps the field as the most predictive of these measures. The gap between the the 77.5% victory probability offered by turnover margin over the next best thing (total yards, unsurprisingly) would be worth about six extra victories to an average team over the 4.5 years from which this data comes. Third, other than the turnover measurement, the next four most predictive stats all favor possession of the ball as a key to victory. Possession implies both efficiency and the minimization of errors. Let's take this to a bottom line proposition: the single best thing an offense can do to contribute to victory is to not turn the ball over. A close second would be to maximize possession of the ball through efficiency. Proof: of the top ten teams in fewest turnovers over that stretch, nine have winning records, and of the top ten most turnover prone teams over that same stretch, eight have losing records. Looking at net turnovers (or turnover ratio), nine of the top ten best teams have winning records; nine of the ten worst have losing records.

Time to bring this home to the Birds. Why does Philly continue to win despite the fact that their offense seems inert for large stretches of time? Simply put (in the Hurts-Sirianni era), they do not put the ball at risk. Philly's 82 turnovers in that timeframe is tied for second fewest in the NFL. Their 14 net turnovers in that time is tied for 9th. If you exclude the 2023 season (an out of character year, as we know), Philly is 4th in net turnovers and 1st in fewest turnovers overall. Philly is second in rushing yards over these 4.5 years as well, speaking to their ability to grind teams down. The Birds are also 5th in average time of possession, which fits right in with everything that we've talked about.

It should be noted that this style won't necessarily work for everyone or in all circumstances. The Chiefs are probably the most successful team over this time frame but are pretty average overall in the turnover statistics (16th in total turnovers and 20th in turnover ratio, although still top ten in possession). I guess having a cheat code in Patrick Mahomes can mask some deficiencies; no surprise there. The point being made here is that there is more than one way to get this done.

"But wait," you say, "is it actually true that the passing game doesn't matter?!?" No, it's not even close to true. What is true, however, is that efficiency matters in the passing game far more than pure volume. Looking back at the data set from before, the team with the highest team passer rating won at a whopping 82% clip (1007-220-4). 17 of the last 23 Super Bowl winners finished 10th or better in team passer rating (including last year's Eagles). These are two samples of literally dozens of stats of this sort that could be cited, but the point is made, and here we come to an interesting observation: the general vibe around the Eagles over the past couple seasons is that the team has succeeded despite a terrible passing game. How many people know, however, that the Birds are the second highest ranked team in passer rating since the start of last season? They are 6th in team ANY/A, 7th in EPA/attempt, and, tellingly, first in lowest interception rate. These are, simply put, not the numbers of a broken passing offense that has lost its way. Could things be better? No doubt, but the narrative that the team needs to look like the Rams or Cowboys in the passing game and will struggle until they do is factually incorrect.

What have we learned?

• The NFL wildly overvalues quarterback stardom, as years of mediocre QBs winning championships and teams overdrafting first-round passers clearly show.

• Statistical attributes with predictive value for victory favor ball security and control — turnover margin, rushing, and time of possession matter far more than simple passing volume.

• The Eagles win because they excel at those efficiency traits, pairing elite turnover avoidance and possession with top-tier passing efficiency, not a high-volume air show.

In short, the Eagles offense is not irrevocably broken (although performance can certainly improve), their play style is designed to take advantage of their strengths and to drive towards what is the surest path to victory in this sport. Complaints about the lack of exciting passing plays or big passing stats are likely overblown, as are concerns that the Birds have become too risk averse (again, I will agree that improvements can be made, but these would be tweaks and not total a reimagining). More specific to the 2025 team, if the OL can get healthier, the run game will improve and the bigger pass plays will naturally follow. The defense remains solid and will probably improve (assuming no additional major injuries), which will allow the complementary nature of this play style to really shine. Twelve wins and the 2 seed seem like the floor for this crew.

FLY EAGLES FLY!