Preseason power rankings; record projections; commentary.
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Let's get into it! I ran out of time to do a review of last year's predictions; feel free to CLICK HERE to review those if you want. Some picks were good, some... weren't.
We're going to count up from 32; I'll include my prediction for that team's final record. You'll note that the list isn't necessarily sorted by the projected record; naturally a team's strength of schedule can inflate (or deflate) their record noticeably.
32. Miami Dolphins (3-14). The Dolphins correctly moved on from the McDaniels-Tagovailoa-Hill triumvirate, and took the cap hits that came with it. If you squint, you can see the making of a good (or at least exciting) offense here, but the defensive personnel is dreadful.
31. New Orleans Saints (4-13). I tried to talk myself into New Orleans sneaking into the NFC South race but just couldn't get there. Like Miami above, this team has a chance to score points but the defense is in rough shape. Too many questions and a tough out of division schedule (the NFC South gets the NFC and AFC North in their crossover schedule this year). Still, the South is bad enough (we'll get to that), that a couple upsets could push any team over the top. To that point, the Panthers occupied this exact spot in last year's rankings.
30. Las Vegas Raiders (4-13). The Raiders did what they could to import solid veterans onto this year's roster, but the offensive weapons and defensive secondary are not good and will keep Vegas in the basement of a rough AFC West.
29. Tennessee Titans (4-13). I honestly believe that this Titans team is no better than last year's version, which wasn't good at all.
28. New York Jets (5-12). The Jets are building for the future (why else sign Geno Smith)? You can see a reality where they are competitive in 2027 and a contender by 2028, though.
27. Carolina Panthers (5-12). Carolina outperformed my projections last year but you could make a case that they were one of if not the worst playoff team in NFL history. I think regression is coming hard for these guys.
26. Indianapolis Colts (5-12). If Daniel Jones can spread his September-October performance out through this entire coming season, the Colts will outperform this projection. Who's going to bet on that?
25. Atlanta Falcons (7-10). On paper, this is a good enough team to be a playoff contender. The problem is, that's been true for nearly every Falcons team for the last 15 years or so and lately they just keep stubbing their toes on one thing or another. The pass rush is decimated with injuries and free agency defections and will probably sink their defense. Thankfully for Atlanta, they play in the NFC South.
24. New England Patriots (7-10). How can the defending AFC champs rank so low? Simple; they were partially the product of a historically easy schedule in 2025. Per PFR, their schedule rating of -4.5 (in simple terms, a measure of how far below average the Patriots opponents were in terms of net points per game) was the second lowest of any team since the league went to 32 franchises in 2002. In other words, out of 768 schedules over 24 years, the 2025 Patriots played the 767th hardest. It was basically the equivalent of playing the 2025 Arizona Cardinals (who's SRS was -4.4) 17 straight games.
Now, I do think that New England played that schedule pretty well (hence the 14 wins), but there are still questions about their OL, their QB is set for regression, they swapped out one moody WR (Diggs) for another (Brown) and their coach might be a little distracted. Mix all that with a much tougher slate and the fact that they will sneak up on no one, and you can see some real regression potential here.
23. Cleveland Browns (8-9). Cleveland has the NFL's worst QB room (see QB ranks column linked above), but other than that has some intriguing young players, particularly on defense. Getting eight combined games against the Giants, Titans, Jets, Raiders and NFC South helps that win total, too. If I'm wrong about how bad the quarterbacks are, this team might sniff playoff contention.
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9, NFC South champs). Every year that I've done this exercise I end up picking the Bucs to win the NFC South and have generally been correct, mostly because of how weak that division has been. This year I worry about the defense not being as good as previous years, about the fact that Tampa never seems to be able to stay healthy, about the fact that Todd Bowles is a bad coach and that HEE HEE Mayfield is boom or bust. Thankfully for their fans, the rest of the division is worse.
21. Arizona Cardinals (6-11). The Cards don't really have a QB but are a little underrated in the trenches and have enough weapons to make things interesting. A tough schedule prevents them from doing much damage.
20. New York Giants (7-10). There's some buzz about this team being a playoff sleeper; I'm not seeing it. The QB is too erratic and, while he could certainly improve, there's no guarantee that he will. The pass rush is supposedly lethal but that's been the prediction for years and hasn't yet materialized. The OL is bad, the DL traded their only good player away, the coach was just fired by a team with Super Bowl aspirations... where do you hang all this optimism if you're on the bandwagon? Like their stadium mates the Jets, this team is a couple years away.
19. Washington Commanders (7-10). In last year's piece I detailed how fortunate the Commies were to get as far as they did, and predicted a significant regression (this happened). This year, they've lost their starting LT and C from an already-shaky OL, added nothing to their weak defense besides limited pass rush specialists and a rookie off-ball LB, and added nothing to the offense besides an aging and temperamental WR to pair with their OTHER aging and temperamental WR. Pair all that with a mentally weak locker room, a coach that's out of ideas and a brutal first half schedule, and the seven wins I'm calling for here may well be overstating things.
18. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-9). Jacksonville is one of several teams with big time regression energy in 2026. Trevor Lawrence is not consistent enough, the defense isn't elite and lost a couple players, they won't be sneaking up on anyone, etc. Last year's team faced four backup QBs in a five week stretch late in the season (four wins).
17. Los Angeles Chargers (8-9). For some years now I've been suckered into picking the Chargers to be elite and usually end up disappointed. This year I'm zigging while everyone else seems to be zagging and picking the Bolts for a disappointing year. I think Justin Herbert is now a little overrated (still hasn't broken through the way I had expected earlier in his career), I think the defense will regress (their talented coordinator stepped away for a HC job) and they still only have one proven weapon on offense. Jim Harbaugh is a really good coach but has also proven to have a shelf life at each of his stops.
16. Dallas Cowboys (8-9). Dallas has completely reshuffled their defense, which was really bad last season. Their two deep on that side of the ball has experienced something like 70% turnover, and is switching schemes. That much change usually signifies how very far a unit has to go. If they pull it off and are effective, this will be a playoff team that will probably lose in the first round again. If their defense is as bad as last year's, eight wins may be too optimistic.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8, AFC Wild Card). For the first time in generations, the Steelers have hired a coach with significant previous experience. Mike McCarthy knows how to win in the regular season but has been mediocre in the playoffs (6-9) since the Packers' magical run to the title 16 seasons ago. A winning regular season and an early playoff exit? Wasn't that what Steelers fans were tired of? This is still the oldest team in the NFL, with a high floor mostly propped up by the defense. Hard to see how 2026 doesn't play out like each of the last ten seasons or so in Pittsburgh.
14. Minnesota Vikings (9-8). Minnesota's endless search for a QB continues, with Kyler Murray the latest to get a shot with Kevin O'Connell. There are enough playmakers on both sides of the ball to get the Vikings back to the postseason if the QB position stabilizes. O'Connell has coaxed the Vikings to a 43-25 record with his best QB being either Kirk Cousins or Sam Darnold; no small feat, that.
13. Baltimore Ravens (10-7, AFC Wild Card). A few of the Ravens' key players are getting a little long in the tooth (QB Jackson, RB Henry, TE Andrews, OL Stanley, CB Humphrey, etc). Combine that with the coaching change, and it's fair to wonder how open this team's window still is.
12. Cincinnati Bengals (11-6, AFC North champs). I think we're at the first team that would have a realistic Super Bowl shot if things break right. In this case, a healthy Joe Burrow might be all that's needed to get it done, considering that Cincinnati has finally brought their OL and DL play up to par. Of course, keeping Burrow healthy has been an elusive dream for this team.
11. San Francisco 49ers (10-7). SF is already bitten with the injury bug (WR Pearsall and DT Collins already done for the year) before we even start. If that bad luck doesn't reverse, this team has no shot. A healthy 49er group, however, is something no other team wants to see come January.
10. Detroit Lions (12-5, NFC Wild Card). Few teams have the top end talent that Detroit does. I think a bounce-back year is a reasonable prediction, although they do need to get healthy. With a couple key guys already on the 4 week DL, they can't afford to fall too far behind.
9. Buffalo Bills, (11-6, AFC East champs). The Bills, as always, will go as far as Josh Allen can take them. That's usually an unfair burden to put on any player, and I think that's part of the reason that Buffalo has had so many frustrating moments in the postseason in Allen's tenure. Like Baltimore earlier, I'm wondering how wide open this window still is.
8. Green Bay Packers (11-6, NFC Wild Card). Green Bay is one of those steady teams that's seemingly good for 9-12 wins per year regardless of who the coach and quarterback are. The Packers are tied for third in the NFL in wins since Matt LaFleur took over and have yet to have a losing season since Jordan Love replaced Rodgers. Questions about the health of some key players cloud this projection, but as of now pretty much everyone is set to return sooner than later. A healthy Packers team has a very high ceiling.
7. Los Angeles Rams (10-7, NFC Wild Card). By now you know the superlatives: "superteam", "inevitable", "legendary offseason", "presumptive favorite", "Super Bowl or bust". How can such a team rank so low? You know all the good stuff; here are the questions that anyone who describes the Rams this way needs to consider:
Is it likely that Matthew Stafford, who's objectively been a modestly above average QB throughout his career, will repeat his MVP season from last year at age 38? This is a player that's considered retirement more than once in recent years.
Myles Garrett posted career highs in sacks (23) and QB pressures (53). He's now nearly 31, an age at which many football players start to deteriorate. How likely is it that Garrett replicates his legendary season?
Will Puka Nacua, who's being sued by multiple women, and Davonte Adams, who will be 34 by the end of the year, both be as effective as in 2025?
Aaron Donald has not played an NFL game in 32 months and is now 35; what can realistically be expected of him?
Why would the Chiefs, another team that presumably views itself as a contender, be content to allow both of their starting corners to go to LA? "Money" isn't the only answer; contending teams find ways to pay good players at key positions. It's reasonable to ask what the Chiefs know and the Rams evidently don't.
What was behind the Rams' late season collapse last year? After eleven games, they were 9-2 and looked like the best team in football. After that, they skidded to a 5-4 finish, with three of those wins coming over the Cardinals and Panthers, two weak teams by most metrics. They also took losses to the Panthers and the Falcons during that stretch. Before Thanksgiving, world beaters. After Thanksgiving, average. The defense in particular played poorly, allowing 27.3 PPG over those nine games.
None of this should persuade you that LA actually stinks (they don't, they're still here at 7th among the other Super Bowl contenders), but it's very fair to point out that there are issues here and this team isn't necessarily the juggernaut they are currently being portrayed as.
6. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6, AFC Wild Card). This projection and ranking is almost completely a bet on the Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes duo figuring things out. There really isn't much else about this team that's elite, but sometimes a special coach-QB combo is enough. It will need to be, as many of the rest of the key players from the dynasty are either gone or getting old.
5. Chicago Bears (12-5, NFC North champs). If I had confidence that Caleb Williams was everything that a lot of media people seem to think that he is, Chicago may well be the top team on this list. They've got players literally everywhere and have a forward-thinking and aggressive coaching staff. Williams simply has too much variance for me to get very excited about their championship chances, but the flip side of that coin is that if he takes another step forward, he's clearly got the raw talent to lead a Super Bowl charge.
4. Houston Texans (12-5, AFC South champs). Similar to the Bears, the Texans are stability at the QB position away from frontrunner status. Getting that OL in shape will help as well, but there are some promising signs in that direction. The defense may well be the NFL's best.
3. Seattle Seahawks (12-5, NFC West champs). I was one of the few that had the Seahawks winning their division in 2025, though I clearly underestimated their ceiling. They did lose their rock solid offensive playcaller as well as their Super Bowl MVP running back but return nearly everyone else. As long as Sam Darnold doesn't turn into a pumpkin, Seattle should stay in the thick of the contender's club.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, NFC East champs). Depth at TE and safety are about this team's only concerns. The defense may be Fangio's best in Philly (quite a statement) and the offense is due for a bounce back season, if for no other reason than they are much healthier than they were at this time last year. The OL will be extra motivated to send Lane Johnson out on a high note. Jalen Hurts is underrated by the NFL as a whole and carries extra motivation. Nick Sirianni is 5th all time among NFL coaches in regular season win %, 3rd among coaches post merger and 1st in the salary cap era. Philly placed six players on the NFL 100 (tied for the most), and every one of them was in the top 60, highlighting the quality.
1. Denver Broncos (14-3, AFC West champs). You can nitpick the Eagles' roster and find a couple holes; I'm not sure that's the case with the Broncos, who are nearly devoid of weaknesses. That balance will serve them well over the course of a long season. Bo Nix is ascending and Sean Payton knows how to get it done. A 14 win team returns intact and added Jaylin Waddle. The NFL as a whole is really sleeping on Denver, who as of this morning are tied for just 13th on DraftKings' Super Bowl odds.
There it is, one man's crack at picking the result of the entire 2026 NFL season! Of course, more than a few of these picks will go wildly astray, but in case that happens, you are entitled to a full refund per our Accuracy Guarantee:
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