An in-depth review of the Eagles' 2026 schedule, with record prediction.
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Quick review: in 2022's version of this column I picked the Eagles to win 11 games (they won 14). In 2023 I had them down for 11 games again (they did indeed win 11). In 2024 I picked them to rack up 13 wins (they hit 14). Last year's prediction was 12 wins; they missed it by sitting their starters in Week 18, finishing 11-6. The general trend has been to be fairly accurate but usually undersell how Philly will turn out.
Let’s make some comments about this year’s slate of opponents. A few quick notes before we begin:
The point spread offered is merely a data-driven guess at the scoring margin, not necessarily how I would handicap the game. The “assessment” is probably more instructive.
When Vegas gives a line of three points or less, they are mostly saying “We have no conviction about this outcome”; I call these games Toss Ups as the game could realistically go either way. Lines from 3.5 points up to seven are more certain, something like a 75% win probability for the favorite. Lines above seven points indicate a Solid Favorite with something like a 90% win probability.
I didn't go into detail, but I gave a thought or two about each NFL team in the power ranking article (linked above); that might shed a little light on why I picked some of these games the way I did.
In the power rankings column, I had picked the Eagles for 14 wins. That's what my model called for, but I'm more confident with a figure of 13 wins, which is the target this article will drive towards.
WEEK 1: Commanders (initial assessment: solid favorite; game line: -13.5). Philly is better than Washington in the trenches on both sides of the ball, which ordinarily would be enough to call for a win. Both teams are breaking in new offenses, which adds a wild card element to this Week 1 matchup. If Philly can keep Jayden Daniels contained in the ground game, I think they'll shut this team down hard. I'd aim for keeping things simple for the first two or three quarters and let your better athletes dictate things. Washington always seems to make these games a rock fight, no matter what else happens, but the flip side is that Jalen Hurts is 8-2 in games against the Commanders that he both starts and finishes. Nick Sirianni is 12-1 overall in games in which he has an extra week or more to prepare, including 5-0 in season openers.
WEEK 2: @Titans (solid favorite; -17). Tennessee's roster is pretty well dreadful; I'm not sure I can even imagine a scenario in which the Titans pull off an upset, short of a miraculous quantum leap by Cam Ward. Never say never, as I would have talked similarly about that infamous Cardinals game in 2023. Philly has struggled with Tennessee overall, with a 2-5 overall record since the team moved to Nashville. The Eagles under Sirianni are 31-13 (70.4%) in regular season road games.
WEEK 3: @Bears (toss up; -2). There should be some revenge in mind for the Birds here, after they totally failed to show up in last year's game. Chicago will take a step forward if Caleb Williams does, but I think the Eagles have a better and more proven roster on the whole. The Eagles are 18-10 (64.3%) in prime time in the Sirianni era.
WEEK 4: Rams (favorite, -7). I've put a lot of words in so far this preseason about why I think the Rams are pretty overrated this year. Philly has beaten these guys four consecutive times, by 11 PPG. Sean McVay is just 1-6 overall against the Eagles, and is 8-9 on the East coast over the last six seasons.
NOTE: the first month or so of the NFL season is nearly meaningless in terms of what it means for the season as a whole. Joe Paterno used to say "There are a lot of September champions". I'm going to copy and paste a comment from last year that captures my thoughts pretty well: "Remember that in 2017 and 2024, the Eagles went 5-3 combined in these first four weeks. They scored a total of 189 points in those eight games and allowed 188. In other words, after four weeks the last two championship Eagles teams were almost exactly average. The moral of this story is that unless the Birds open 0-4, we probably shouldn't make too much of what we see by this point."
WEEK 5: Jaguars, in London (solid favorite, -10.5). Philly has played two previous games overseas (against the Jaguars in London in 2018 and against the Packers in Brazil two years ago; they won both games). Philly has won five straight against the Jaguars (last loss was in 2006). Jacksonville is due for some regression and I think the Eagles get the job done.
WEEK 6: Panthers (solid favorite, -19). These two always seem to play odd games; I specifically remember that awful 2003 NFCCG loss, a thrilling win in 2017, a tough loss in 2018 and that unbelievably weird 2024 matchup that Philly won by one. The Eagles are considerably better than Carolina this year and should win this one comfortably at home. Of course, we all thought the same thing two years ago and look how that turned out.
WEEK 7: Cowboys (solid favorite, -12). I'm not sure what to make of Dallas this year. If their rebuilt defense is up to the challenge and if Prescott can stay healthy, they're a playoff team. I think those are big IFs. The pass rush in particular is a question mark. Regardless, Dallas always seems to play the Eagles tough. Philly is 5-1 at home against Dallas when both teams have their starting QB.
WEEK 8: @Commanders (solid favorite, -9.5). I make some version of this comment every season, but once more, with feeling: I can't remember the last time I went into a season thinking that Washington was better than Philly, yet we seem to drop one to them nearly every year. Over the last 20 seasons, Philly is "just" 25-16 in this series, including 8-1 in the Sirianni era in games that Jalen Hurts starts and finishes.
WEEK 9: Giants (solid favorite, -14.5). In the Andy Reid era, this was a serious rivalry as these teams combined to win the NFC East in ten of the first twelve seasons of the century. Philly was 16-11 against the Midgets in those twelve years. Since that time, the Eagles have won the division another six times (none for NY) and have a 22-7 overall record. Last year's Thursday Night Nightmare was the first time in more than a decade that I felt New York kicked our butts. Of course, the Birds returned the favor two weeks later.
WEEK 10: BYE WEEK. Other than that Rams-Bears pairing, there really aren't any games in this first half that should really scare us. Naturally, that doesn't mean that Philly will win them all (remember that Thursday night game against the Giants last year?); if I had to guess the most likely record at this point, I'd say 7-2.
WEEK 11: Steelers (solid favorite, -12). Strange but true: did you know that the Birds have largely dominated this series? In the Super Bowl era, they've won 13 of 19, which would include the entire Steel Curtain era and both the Cowher and Roethlisberger eras. The Birds have not lost to Pittsburgh at home since 1965; eleven consecutive wins. The home team has won seven consecutive matchups.
Stretch run checkup: as we've said before, the NFL season REALLY starts at Thanksgiving. If you're in the hunt by now, you have a chance. If you play poorly after the holiday, you have almost no chance. Philly should be in a good spot by this point; it's hard to see them worse than 7-3 or 8-2. If it's the latter mark, it would be the 5th consecutive year that Philly has opened 8-2 or better.
WEEK 12: @Cowboys (solid favorite, -8). In the same way that the Eagles have generally done well against Dallas at home, traveling to Jerryworld has largely been a bad experience for the Birds; they haven't won in Dallas in games in which the starters played since 2017. In the Jeffrie Lurie-Jerry Jones era (1995-current), the series is deadlocked at exactly 32 wins each, counting playoffs.
WEEK 13: @Cardinals (solid favorite, -10.5). Remarkably, the Cardinals have been tougher on Philly than Dallas has (15-12 over that same 31 year stretch, including wins in seven of the last ten meetings). This will be the first matchup since that 2023 meltdown loss. As far as this season goes, the Cardinals are clearly in a multi-year rebuild and no matter what else happens, an Eagle loss here would be an upset.
WEEK 14: Colts (strong favorite, -18). The Eagles have won four straight against the Colts going back to the 2006 season. That includes wins over Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck and Matt Ryan. Now, the Colts have the immortal Daniel Jones as their QB. Philly is 4-2 against Jones from his time in New York, with an average margin of victory of 8.8 PPG. The Colts have plenty of talent in the trenches but most of it is past its prime, and they are counting on their big ticket additions to both the secondary and WR room to step up big time this season. Gambles all the way around.
WEEK 15: Seahawks (favorite, -5). Philly has lost eight straight to the Seahawks, but that losing streak was entirely in the Pete Carroll era. I do wonder to what degree that culture has carried over to the Mike Macdonald era, but they are clearly off to a great start. Expect a tense, low scoring game in which these talented defenses dominate. If it comes to that, I like the Eagles OL better and trust Jalen Hurts more than I trust Sam Darnold.
WEEK 16: Texans (favorite, -6). Houston is the only NFL team that's never beaten the Eagles; Philly is 6-0 all time. You can take everything I said about Seattle above and apply it to the Texans in this game (good defenses, better OL, more trustworthy QB).
WEEK 17: @49ers (favorite, -4). I have Philly down as a favorite here but in truth do not feel good about it. Philly hasn't beaten a 49ers team who was playing with their starting QB since 2010 and is just 3-5 since that time. SF embarrassed Philly the last two times they met; hopefully the Eagles staff has this date circled on their calendar.
WEEK 18: @Giants (strong favorite, -10.5). Back to a tried-and-true statistic that I've cited each season: in the last 16 years, there have been eighteen regular season Eagles games that met the following criteria: 1) were played in December or January, 2) were NFC East games, 3) one team was eliminated, the other was in playoff contention and 4) the starters didn't sit. This situation may apply here, and the good news is that the contending team went 16-2 with an average scoring margin of +9.3 PPG. It seems like a narrow field of criteria, and it is, but my takeaway is that the classic “late season divisional trap game” isn't as big of a threat as it sometimes appears.
So there you have it; one man's breakdown of each game on this schedule. In summary, here's how I would classify the games by each category:
STRONG FAVORITE
Commanders
@Titans
Jaguars (neutral field)
Panthers
Cowboys
@Commanders
Giants
Steelers
@Cowboys
@Cardinals
Colts
@Giants
FAVORITE
Rams
Seahawks
Texans
@49ers
TOSS UP
@Bears
In short, I really can't see how the team loses more than two of that large top group of games, short of unpredictable chaos or cataclysmic injuries. Those bottom five games are all tricky, but I think Philly can win three of those (they are better than all of them with the possible exception of Seattle, and get three of them at home), which gets Philly to 13-4 pretty comfortably.
Final note: if thirteen (or fourteen) wins sounds a little far fetched, keep in mind that DraftKings currently only has the Birds as underdogs in four games (@Bears, Rams, @Cowboys, @49ers). None of these lines are currently greater than 1.5 points.
As always, if any of these picks go astray, you are covered by:
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