Who's the NFL's comeback king?

A few days ago we asked the question, "Who is Jalen Hurts?". In that piece I briefly mentioned a metric that I called "comeback success rate" that attempted to compare the number of times a QB had led his team to a 4th quarter comeback (or had led his team on a game winning drive) to the number of opportunities that this player had to do this. This was done by adding the number of comebacks attributed to the QB to the number of losses to estimate how often the player was trailing in the 4th quarter. This is imperfect but likely the best measurement that's readily available.

Why focus on losses instead of total games played or games won? There are two reasons: first, it wouldn't be fair to penalize a player who wins significantly more than they lose for having a lower percentage of 4th quarter comebacks. For example, if Tom Brady wins 75% of his games, his comeback percentage might not be very high. Does that imply Brady wasn't effective in those situations? Certainly not. Second, if a player has far more losses than wins in their career, a large portion of their wins might be come-from-behind victories. Why should this player be credited for essentially being a key part of a struggling team? Using losses as the divisor addresses both of these issues.

So here's the data (from 2021-2025):

Player	4QC	GWD	CBOpp	GWDOpp	CB%	GWD%
Bo Nix	8	10	18	20	44.44%	50.00%
Patrick Mahomes	14	17	37	40	37.84%	42.50%
Tyler Shough	2	3	6	7	33.33%	42.86%
Kirk Cousins	15	17	41	43	36.59%	39.53%
Kenny Pickett	6	7	17	18	35.29%	38.89%
Jake Browning	3	3	9	9	33.33%	33.33%
Jalen Hurts	10	13	32	35	31.25%	37.14%
Jimmy Garoppolo	6	6	19	19	31.58%	31.58%
Justin Herbert	14	16	48	50	29.17%	32.00%
Josh Allen	9	14	33	38	27.27%	36.84%
Sam Darnold	5	10	21	26	23.81%	38.46%
Jordan Love	8	9	29	30	27.59%	30.00%
Jared Goff	12	15	46	49	26.09%	30.61%
Jayden Daniels	4	4	14	14	28.57%	28.57%
Caleb Williams	8	7	26	25	30.77%	28.00%
Matthew Stafford	8	12	36	40	22.22%	30.00%
Anthony Richardson	2	3	9	10	22.22%	30.00%
Lamar Jackson	9	9	33	33	27.27%	27.27%
Dak Prescott	10	11	39	40	25.64%	27.50%
Aaron Rodgers	8	12	38	42	21.05%	28.57%
Tyler Huntley	3	3	12	12	25.00%	25.00%
Trevor Siemian	2	2	8	8	25.00%	25.00%
Joe Flacco	5	6	22	23	22.73%	26.09%
Jameis Winston	3	4	14	15	21.43%	26.67%
Bryce Young	7	12	37	42	18.92%	28.57%
Tommy DeVito	1	2	6	7	16.67%	28.57%
Daniel Jones	9	10	41	42	21.95%	23.81%
Geno Smith	10	12	47	49	21.28%	24.49%
Cooper Rush	1	3	8	10	12.50%	30.00%
Joe Burrow	6	9	32	35	18.75%	25.71%
Tua Tagovailoa	7	9	36	38	19.44%	23.68%
Brock Purdy	4	4	19	19	21.05%	21.05%
J.J. McCarthy	1	1	5	5	20.00%	20.00%
Zach Wilson	5	5	26	26	19.23%	19.23%
Mason Rudolph	1	2	7	8	14.29%	25.00%
Marcus Mariota	3	4	17	18	17.65%	22.22%
Aidan O'Connell	2	3	12	13	16.67%	23.08%
C.J. Stroud	2	7	20	25	10.00%	28.00%
Carson Wentz	4	4	21	21	19.05%	19.05%
Russell Wilson	8	9	43	44	18.60%	20.45%
Trevor Lawrence	8	12	50	54	16.00%	22.22%
Kyler Murray	7	7	37	37	18.92%	18.92%
Davis Mills	4	6	25	27	16.00%	22.22%
Baker Mayfield	8	9	48	49	16.67%	18.37%
Gardner Minshew II	3	3	20	20	15.00%	15.00%
Sam Howell	2	2	15	15	13.33%	13.33%
Mac Jones	4	5	36	37	11.11%	13.51%
Will Levis	2	2	18	18	11.11%	11.11%
Drew Lock	1	1	9	9	11.11%	11.11%
Drake Maye	1	2	13	14	7.69%	14.29%
Jacoby Brissett	3	3	28	28	10.71%	10.71%
Bailey Zappe	0	1	5	6	0.00%	16.67%
Justin Fields	3	6	40	43	7.50%	13.95%
Andy Dalton	2	2	19	19	10.53%	10.53%
Tyrod Taylor	1	1	11	11	9.09%	9.09%
Deshaun Watson	1	1	11	11	9.09%	9.09%
Joshua Dobbs	1	1	13	13	7.69%	7.69%
Teddy Bridgewater	0	1	9	10	0.00%	10.00%
Cam Ward	1	1	15	15	6.67%	6.67%
Spencer Rattler	0	0	13	13	0.00%	0.00%
Michael Penix	0	0	8	8	0.00%	0.00%
Jaxson Dart	0	0	8	8	0.00%	0.00%

The table is sorted by the lowest combined rank of the two percentages. A few takeaways:

• Jalen Hurts ranks 7th overall of the 62 QBs tested, and 5th among likely starters.

• Notable players who rank as average to terrible by this analysis: Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield, Brock Purdy, Trevor Lawrence, Drake Maye, Jaxson Dart.

• Maybe not meaningful but hilarious anyway: Matthew Stafford and Anthony Richardson's percentages are identical, LOL.